Covid19 Death Rates Of 0.05% To 0.1%

[flobadob]

Do the death rates of 0.05% and lower, to highs of 0.1% depending on the area, do they really warrant the draconian measures imposed upon the population of many countries.

Further to that, from my personal experience, which is a small town, although restrictions were imposed, it seemed as busy as any time when out and about in shops etc. yet no one in the area got the disease and the death rate is zero in the larger area.

That follows in line with the 0.05% and lower death rates worldwide.

[fiction-factory]

How are those figures calculate please flobadob? 0.05% of what and in what period? The deaths haven't stopped yet and may pick up again, and another wave is a strong possibility in winter.
What would the figures have been if left unchecked? We may never know but the consensus of scientists is that this is a really infection disease which would have spread quickly and grown exponentially.

But when the dust settles we may conclude that more targeted measures would have been better focussing on the most at risk groups and leaving schools, clubs, sports stadiums open for the under 50s say

[Gromit]

// no one in the area got the disease and the death rate is zero in the larger area. //

Sounds unlikely. Do you live on a remote Scottish Island?

The R number should not be the basis for nationwide decisions. It is a measure of the whole country, and is an average. Which means there can be huge variations. So the R number in the North of England will be higher than London which is past corona peak.

[10ClarionSt]

/ consensus of scientists is that this is a really infection disease which would have spread quickly and grown exponentially./

It's only opinons. Who can say that it would have been worse without lockdown? No-one.

[fiction-factory]

Well R fell from somewhere between 3 or 4 in March to less than 1 in May. Maybe that was just down to the warm weather, 10CS?

[10ClarionSt]

You've made that up in order to continue with your fawning infatuation with Johnson and his methods.

[fiction-factory]

No. Chris Whitty , Patrick Vallance, Jenny Harries made it up.

[1ozzy]

With out the //draconian measures// imposed Flobadod
could you possibly predict an outcome of how many infected and how many dead?

[flobadob]

I'm using figures based on deaths per population. For example worldwide 400,000 deaths out of 7 billion people would give a death rate of 0.006%

In America there's 108,000 deaths in a population of 350 million giving a rate of 0.03%

In UK 40,000 deaths out of 63 million giving a rate of 0.06%

The only country I know that didn't lock down as seriously is Sweden who kept schools and bars etc open. They have 4,500 deaths in a population of 10 million, giving a death rate of 0.05%.

I'm hoping my maths are correct. But to me these seem like low death rates and taking Sweden into account, did the lockdowns have any effect?

[fiction-factory]

I think lockdown is more than about closing bars and schools. Your figures look about right although UK population is about 66 million. But of course deaths are still happening. Of course we'll never know for certain what deaths rates would have been (even though epidemiologists seem unanimous in the view that it would have been a lot more without lockdown). I think we'd need more than one small example (Sweden) of non -lockdown to conclude that outcomes are unaffected

[flobadob]

Even letting go of the death rates and just going on actual total cases. 7 million cases out of a 7 billion population gives a rate of 0.1% chance of getting the disease. 1 in a thousand.

[fiction-factory]

N0- it's a 0.1% of dying. For over 65s of course the chances are a lot higher so they might not agree the chances are low.

[flobadob]

Fiction, I don't think China locked down. They had 5,000 deaths out of over a billion population.

[fiction-factory]

Oh I see sorry- I thought you were meaning 7m deaths
We don't know the actual number of cases.

[flobadob]

Fiction, no, it's 0.1% chance of getting the disease and 0.006% chance of dying from it.

[flobadob]

We can only go on data provided, which states less that 7 million currently.

[10ClarionSt]

Johnson ignored Valances' advice to begin with. Cos Johnson wants to ruin this country. That's the only good job he's doing right now. He knows he's ruining it and he doesn't care. He's said as much in his briefings.

[fiction-factory]

>Fiction, I don't think China locked down. They had 5,000 deaths out of over a billion population.

You might want to check on lockdown. I take their figures with a mountain of salt

[woofgang]

flobadob, global calculations will only take you so far. Different countries have different population densities, climates, gene pools even.

[fiction-factory]

>We can only go on data provided, which states less that 7 million currently
That data is meaningless unless we have tested everyone or at least done a major sampling exercise. I don't believe that large areas of Africa, for example, have any idea how prevalent the disease is

[flobadob]

Woofgang, I think if you go through country by country then the rates are all the same ballpark. I think the 2 examples I used of USA and UK were the highest. If I'd used other countries data the percentages would have been even lower. So I was trying to cover my bases by using the extreme cases.