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Probability Calculation

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Barquentine | 09:35 Sun 10th Jul 2011 | Science
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I'm not sure if this question is in the right category but here goes:

Can anyone tell me how you calculate the probability of getting both lucky stars right in the Euromillions lottery for three draws in a row.

Mind you - didn't get any other number so it's done me no good!

It just seems spooky getting the lucky stars 3x in a row. But maybe the odds aren't that big anyway. Oh - and another factor - on each occasion I did 3 rows (does that affect the probability?)

I wish I had understood combinations/permutations and probability during my O-level maths years!

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The probability of getting just the two lucky stars once is 1 in 95

So getting it twice would be 1 in 9025

Three times.. 1 in 857375

(i think :))
Don't think its as high as 1 in 95. That's assuming you cant have the same number twice (so no 2+2, 3+3 etc) and that there is no zero.....
oops - rethink - i now see the numbers go up to 11.....
I cheated on the 1 in 95 and got it from the wikipedia entry for the euro millions :)

I agree though, because if I work it I actually make it (11*10)/2 so 1 in 55

So two times...1 in 3025

3 time... 1 in 166375

Again... I think :)
Where's factor30 when you need him :)
I think the chances for getting the two lucky stars once is 1 in 55....
Too slow!
Question Author
Thanks.
And having three lines on each of the three draws? Do you just divide by three? So 166375/3 = 1 in 55458?
Just looked again and the wiki entry for the lucky stars probability was for getting no main numbers and just the two lucky stars. so yeah, ignoring the main numbers totally it's 1 in 55

11 possibilities for the first number drawn. 10 possibilities for the second number so 11*10 = 110, then because it doesn't matter what order the number are drawn in and there are only 2 numbers it's 110/(2*1)= 55

Then to get the probability of successive events it just p^n (p is the probability, n is the number of events) so in this case 55^3=166375

I used to hate stats though :)
"And having three lines on each of the three draws? Do you just divide by three? So 166375/3 = 1 in 55458?"

yes.
I don't know how the Lucky Stars thing works -I'll have to look on the Euromillions Lottery when i get back this afternoon
two numbers drawn from a pool of 11, factor.
Question Author
Many thanks.
IMO, the probability of getting the same stars 2 or 3 draws in a row is irrelevant. Past draws do not affect furture draws; the proability remains the same for each draw.
Berkshirelad - you're right that each draw is independant of the previous and next draw but that wasn't Barquentine's question.......
Rather than purchase lottery tickets, give the money you would have invested in lottery tickets to me. I will return 51% of this money to you thereby improving your overall odds of fairing better then you would have by buying lottery tickets.
Having all ready improved your odds of fairing better then you would have by purchasing lottery tickets, in addition I promise to invest 51% of my net gains from providing this service, in lottery tickets and to give you 51% (I'm not greedy) of any winnings thus acquired, thereby, in all probability, further improving the return on your investment over simply buying your own lottery tickets . . . what a bargain! - (#783 from "1001 Get Rich Quick Schemes" by - The Schnookmeister!)
#645 from the Judge’s book of similar schemes:

“I’ll bet you a pound that if you give me two pounds, I’ll immediately give you three pounds in return”. So I take the two pounds, refuse to pay out the three pounds, pay the one pound for losing the bet, and – hey presto – one pound profit!

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