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Stalemate And Escalation Risk In Ukraine
Updated assessment of the present position, - sobering reading;
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Good question, it sounds a big number. Also, the factor which isn't mentioned is 'motivation', & a lot of these men are being dragooned into the army & are not sure what they are fighting for - Putin's lies about Nazis is bound to not hold up for much longer - whereas the motivation of the Ukrainians couldn't be stronger, they know exactly for what they fight for & apparently there is a long waiting list of recruits.
Russia is having huge issues now.
The economy is under immense strain, and there is known to be dissent within the Kremlin, Whether the story in the Mirror the other day about approaches to the west to end the war from Kremlin dissidents is true one cannot know.
As the report in Meduza indicates, the only thing holding Ukraine back now is lack of conventional weaponry and counter battery technology (anti-artillery piece warfare). However, the manpower issue is being addressed with the training of thousands of new recruits in the UK, the effects of which won't really have kicked in yet.
In Kherson Russian forces continue to be pounded by rocket attacks. All road bridges across the Dnipro and Inhulets rivers are unusable to heavy traffic. The military command there has already abandoned the north of the river. Sources believed to be close to the Kremlin suspect that Russia is resigned to losing Kherson and Zaporizhzhya.
But if they do, that will make not only Crimea but occupied Donbass vulnerable to counter attack.
It seems a mass exodus of Russians from Crimea is underway, both civilian and military. The Kerch bridge has been closed to the plebs to allow military staff's families to use it. And aircraft are being moved to the south of the peninsula.
The one concern is the situation at the Enerhodar nuclear power station: last night the zombie-like general who does the daily military update on the russian side claimed that Ukraine was planning a false flag attack there on Aug 19, and would blame it on russia. However plainly Ukraine is planning no such thing. For one thing, the shelling of the plant is apparently unlikely to cause a nuclear catastrophe despite fears, but what might well do so are the bombs the russian military has allegedly planted underneath it.
So, false flag by Russia might be the coded message there.
Nuclear blackmail?
Or an excuse to retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons?
Or the usual bluster and obfuscation?
Ukraine independence day is just 6 days away and many people escpte something dramatic one way or another on that day.
The economy is under immense strain, and there is known to be dissent within the Kremlin, Whether the story in the Mirror the other day about approaches to the west to end the war from Kremlin dissidents is true one cannot know.
As the report in Meduza indicates, the only thing holding Ukraine back now is lack of conventional weaponry and counter battery technology (anti-artillery piece warfare). However, the manpower issue is being addressed with the training of thousands of new recruits in the UK, the effects of which won't really have kicked in yet.
In Kherson Russian forces continue to be pounded by rocket attacks. All road bridges across the Dnipro and Inhulets rivers are unusable to heavy traffic. The military command there has already abandoned the north of the river. Sources believed to be close to the Kremlin suspect that Russia is resigned to losing Kherson and Zaporizhzhya.
But if they do, that will make not only Crimea but occupied Donbass vulnerable to counter attack.
It seems a mass exodus of Russians from Crimea is underway, both civilian and military. The Kerch bridge has been closed to the plebs to allow military staff's families to use it. And aircraft are being moved to the south of the peninsula.
The one concern is the situation at the Enerhodar nuclear power station: last night the zombie-like general who does the daily military update on the russian side claimed that Ukraine was planning a false flag attack there on Aug 19, and would blame it on russia. However plainly Ukraine is planning no such thing. For one thing, the shelling of the plant is apparently unlikely to cause a nuclear catastrophe despite fears, but what might well do so are the bombs the russian military has allegedly planted underneath it.
So, false flag by Russia might be the coded message there.
Nuclear blackmail?
Or an excuse to retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons?
Or the usual bluster and obfuscation?
Ukraine independence day is just 6 days away and many people escpte something dramatic one way or another on that day.
What is happening in Kazakhstan is interesting,
The govenment there has now banned the teaching of Russian in - I think it's junior schools.
Azerbaijan has been more aggressivly targeting Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Both these are signs that the (none too pleasant governments) there are sensing weakness in their large neighbour.
The govenment there has now banned the teaching of Russian in - I think it's junior schools.
Azerbaijan has been more aggressivly targeting Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Both these are signs that the (none too pleasant governments) there are sensing weakness in their large neighbour.
Interesting; I just tack onto this thread something I have just read apropos another topic (Churchill).
In a letter written to the TLS 3 1/2 years ago by a Prof. Romanchuk of Florida State Uni. which brings to mind Putin's continual claim that 'Russians' defeated Nazi Germany, the Prof. says, '...millions of non-Russians fought and died in the Red Army [it was] Ukrainians and Belarusians who made the greatest contribution to defeating Hitler....'.
And Putin is telling his hapless army that they are fighting Nazis !
In a letter written to the TLS 3 1/2 years ago by a Prof. Romanchuk of Florida State Uni. which brings to mind Putin's continual claim that 'Russians' defeated Nazi Germany, the Prof. says, '...millions of non-Russians fought and died in the Red Army [it was] Ukrainians and Belarusians who made the greatest contribution to defeating Hitler....'.
And Putin is telling his hapless army that they are fighting Nazis !
Of course they gloss over the fact that the Soviet Union was in league with Hitler until Hitler invaded them.
The current Russian state resembles Nazi Germany more and more each day.
Btw on this day in 1941 the NKVD flooded a dam on the Dnipro at Zaporizhzhya killing 120,000 Ukrainians and thousands of Red Army too!
Ominous anniversary.
August 23 is Black Ribbon day : the date of the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact.
August 24 is Ukraine Independence Day
The current Russian state resembles Nazi Germany more and more each day.
Btw on this day in 1941 the NKVD flooded a dam on the Dnipro at Zaporizhzhya killing 120,000 Ukrainians and thousands of Red Army too!
Ominous anniversary.
August 23 is Black Ribbon day : the date of the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact.
August 24 is Ukraine Independence Day
Another aside, on unemployment in Putin's Russia;
'Kremlin statistical creativity extends far beyond methodological recalculations. Take the artificially low official unemployment rate, for example, which has supposedly decreased since the invasion began to record low levels, reflecting the strongest economy ever, in the words of one Putin lackey.
In actuality, the Kremlin resorts to a veritable menagerie of dirty tricks to press the unemployment count down, including pressuring companies to send employees on “mandatory unpaid vacations” of infinite duration in lieu of layoffs and excluding recently laid-off workers under the guise of “temporary downtime”.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate does not even include the hundreds of thousands of skilled workers who have left Russia altogether.
The Kremlin would never admit to any exodus, but using Eastern European and Central Asian sources such as local newspapers, we estimate that no less than 500,000 technical workers have fled Russia, with as many flocking to newfound IT hubs in Finland, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. More talent exodus is coming as these neighbouring states continue to pick Putin’s pockets from the borders.'
The Telegraph today
'Kremlin statistical creativity extends far beyond methodological recalculations. Take the artificially low official unemployment rate, for example, which has supposedly decreased since the invasion began to record low levels, reflecting the strongest economy ever, in the words of one Putin lackey.
In actuality, the Kremlin resorts to a veritable menagerie of dirty tricks to press the unemployment count down, including pressuring companies to send employees on “mandatory unpaid vacations” of infinite duration in lieu of layoffs and excluding recently laid-off workers under the guise of “temporary downtime”.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate does not even include the hundreds of thousands of skilled workers who have left Russia altogether.
The Kremlin would never admit to any exodus, but using Eastern European and Central Asian sources such as local newspapers, we estimate that no less than 500,000 technical workers have fled Russia, with as many flocking to newfound IT hubs in Finland, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. More talent exodus is coming as these neighbouring states continue to pick Putin’s pockets from the borders.'
The Telegraph today
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