Ukraine - Everyone Called It Wrong

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Gromit | 07:41 Fri 15th Apr 2022 | News
35 Answers
Russia thought victory would take 48 hours.
The US largely agreed.
The EU put a lot of effort into diplomacy to avoid a war believing Ukraine would be no match for the Russian Army, and would fall quickly.

And none of those scenarios have played out. The war is now in day 50.

In Russia there is only fake news and conspiracy theories. Truth is lost there. So they can be forgiven for believing a victory would only take a couple of days. Now that fantasy has had sharp slap in the face by reality and truth.

No sure how the US got it so wrong. They too might have been deluding themselves. They chose to believe that Russia was strong and powerful to justify enormous spending on the military. It doesn’t fit the narrative to say Russia is weak, badly run, and are losers.

The EU largely followed the USA’s wrong assessment. What everyone missed was the resolve and courage of the Ukrainian people.

Now that a quick victory has been averted, we in the west should seize the opportunity. Flood Ukraine with weapons no matter the cost. Double down on sanctions ( they are mostly not working, but they are an irritation). Opportunities like this do not come along very often. A defeat would be good for the Russian people. Their paper tiger leader would fall, and they just might get someone better.


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Where to begin.
Where to begin?How about a massive cyber strike on the Russian computer network.A complete shutdown of their internet would be a massive blow to their economy,to their media,in fact,most things that Putin needs in his now lost war.
i`m wondering how long Russia can last as they are obviously essentially bankrupt both morally and actually. I hope they arent just going to leave the sunken warship to pollute the sea. THe UN should be leaning on them to contribute to the rebuilding Ukraine when this unjustifiable war is over.
“No sure how the US got it so wrong”

I’m not surprised you haven’t supplied a link because that is complete and utter tosh. Whether even Putin thought it would be over in 48 hours I’m not sure.
Complacency as well as a willingness to believe fake or cowardly intelligence briefings probably
US intelligence and UK for that matter, has been spot on all the way. Even predicting the (since miserably failed) attempted encirclement of Kyiv.

I agree with the rest of it though.
Germany in particular should be ashamed.
Still celebrating the sinking of the Moskva:
«Руський корабль пошел нахуй» :-)
Beware Neptune the God of the Sea
Only 14 sailors out of 510 are reported to have survived the missile attack
Where to begin? indeed.

Do the western countries annoy a sadistic megalomaniac enough to create an all out war?

Keeping in mind the horrific weapons both sides own?

Tricky situation.
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The Moskva was the perfect target, symbolically and tactically. It carried deadly long range missiles, many of which are now under the sea instead of falling on Ukrainian towns and cities.
The fact they’re too embarrassed to admit what really happened makes it all the better
I wouldn't call Putin a paper tiger - more like a cornered snake. He has the ability to call for devastating strikes against the West but would he risk destroying his own country, would his military obey him & would his armaments work effectively? Maybe we will find out!
Most likely few knew how incompetent their military was or how vulnerable their equipment. The emphasis seems to be on firing missiles from a distance to flatten towns/cities, and mentioning that they have nukes and are prepared to use them, first use. (One wonders if they are any better prepared their side of their border.)
"I hope they arent just going to leave the sunken warship to pollute the sea."

Maybe they can ask the US for help there. I'm sure they'd be happy to help salvage everything possible.
I have found nothing that says the UK, US or EUSSR thought it would be over in 48 hours gromit. You seem to have found a creative way to knock the west once again. You seem to hate the west so much, why don't you find a place you like and move there?
"48 hours" has been regularly quoted. I think it's just used as an alternative to "quickly".
Judging by how well Russia has "decommissioned" its older nuclear submarines I fully expect them to leave the Moskva exactly where it lies.
I don't know of any western source who thought Ukraine would fall quickly or indeed at all.
For Russia to invade the way it did was insane. Plainly they must have thought that resistance would easiy break, but that is an astounding lack of intelligence - both military and other ...
I think many thought Ukraine might be largely defeated initially but would never "lie down"
Russia simply doesn't have the manpower to subdue a massive and hostile country like Ukraine. The fear was that they'd counter that by simply trying to ethnically cleanse the population through genocide and fear. That bit they certainly appeared to be attempting to an extent.
No one bargained for the incompetence of their military.
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// Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley predicted in early February that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could take Kyiv in just "72 hours," a far cry from the monthlong conflict Russia and Ukraine are now engaged in.

Milley delivered the dire prediction for Ukraine to Congress during closed hearings on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3, saying Ukraine would likely lose 15,000 troops compared to Russia's 4,000. //
On June 20th 1941,Hitler stated that the invasion of Russia would be a 6-8 weeks operation.After that it would be a "policing operation"after that.I wonder what happened to that Hitler chappie?
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I said Russia estimated 48 hours.

// Konstantin Malofeev said: "Open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine cannot be a war, or, at least, a long-term war, because the difference in military potential is so big that there can be only an operation for forcing the peace.

"It will take 48 hours maximum, and we cannot talk about different fronts." //

The Pentagon were saying 72 hours, and the EU were follow the US script.

The UK made no prediction.

As I have stated many times, Putin made the mistake of believing his own propaganda.
I agree with your excellent assessment of it all, and we should give Ukraine anything it needs to see off the Russians.

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