Freedom Day

[Deskdiary]

There's lots of noises the Govt is going to be pathetic and buckle and delay freedom day.

According to the link below deaths have doubled to 8 (8, not 80 or 800 or 8,000 - but 8), and my health authority in SE England has not had a Covid death for 100 days - so 2 and a 1/2 months.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9682007/Covid-cases-rise-40-week-7-490-PM-refuses-guarantee-June-21-Freedom-Day.html

There is not a single meaningful reason for freedom day to be delayed, so why is it likely to happen?

[woofgang]

oh I thought you meant the day where the average person has earned enough to pay their tax?
https://www.unbiased.co.uk/news/tax/what-is-your-tax-freedom-day

[New Judge]

//A couple of weeks ago, the number of people in hospital was around 900 but that figure has started to rise in line with the increased number of infections and is currently around 1100.//

That’s a 22% increase, Chris. Two weeks ago the seven day average of new infections was 3,200. Today it is 7,000. That’s an increase of 120%

//The public health professionals and scientists have come to a different more informed decision.//

The health professionals and scientists are only looking at one dimension of this problem, bobbin. That’s all they’re qualified to comment on. Often overlooked is that this problem is multi-dimensional. Alas theirs is the only opinion being heeded and it is causing enormous damage.

[Seventy3]

interesting that, everyone seems to have a crystal ball.

[THECORBYLOON]

NJ, you stated, "So every week 63 people (0.54%) are dying from Covid"

The latest data from the ONS show that in week ending 28.5.21, there were 9,006 deaths registered in England of which ninety-two mentioned COVID.

Those COVID deaths represent 1.02% of deaths in England registered in that week.

"At present, new infection figures show that about one in 1,400 people are contracting the virus every seven days."

The ONS say the figure for England in week ending 5.6.21, "[equates] to around 1 in 560 people."

[Seventy3]

To anyone with even the most rudimentary grasp of stats it's obvious that the vaccine is working so i cannot se why this is even a debatable point. Unlock as planned,

[Ellipsis]

> so I just simply apply a ltitle common sense

Try a little more common sense.

> i cannot se why this is even a debatable point

In other words, you don't understand why the government is doing what it's doing.

[THECORBYLOON]

I was wondering why there was no contribution from TORATORATORA since he was convinced there would be no changes to the English plans but I see he's in the "BBC" again...

[Jackdaw33]

But he's got Gully for company this time!

[Atheist]

TTT's in the middle of dispute about what constitutes a corner kick. I don't think he'll be back for a while. I think he has realised he's in the wrong and is not happy about it. But I'm sure he'll pop back when he's calmed down.

[THECORBYLOON]

I've missed all that then.

[New Judge]

//The latest data from the ONS show that in week ending 28.5.21, there were 9,006 deaths registered in England of which ninety-two mentioned COVID.//

I was using ball park figures, Corby, not a specific week. I used a figure of about 1,650 a day, so 11,550 a week. At present the average 7 day death figure is 9, so 63 a week. 63/11,550 = 0.54%. The “deaths mentioned Covid” is inflated by those who died of other causes but with Covid on the death certificate. However, even at 1%, the percentage of deaths down to Covid is spectacularly low.

//The ONS say the figure for England in week ending 5.6.21, "[equates] to around 1 in 560 people.//

I was using the government’s measure of new infections. The current 7 day average is 7,000 a day, so 49,000 a week. 67,000,000/49,000 = I in 1,367. Using the same government measure of new infections in the week you mention there were 30,606 new cases, which is one person in 2,189.

I don’t really mind what figures are used. The fact is that Covid cases affect a remarkably small percentage of the UK total population and hospitalisations and deaths are a very small proportion of that. As I demonstrated with ‘Chico’s figures, new infections are simply not materialising into hospital cases and deaths. The Delta variant has been around for three or four weeks. New cases have increased but hospital cases have increased by only a fifth of that. Deaths (7 day average) reduced to single figures in the middle of May and have remained there (bar one day when they hit 10) ever since.

There will be fluctuations like this (and worse) forevermore. The country needs to face up to this before it runs out of money and the health of thousands of people who are unfortunate enough to suffer ailments other than Covid become a greater burden on the NHS than Covid ever will. The country is being taken for a mighty ride.

[bednobs]

they may take our lives, but they'll never take... OUR FREEDOM!

[New Judge]

They have, bednobs. And they are very reluctant to give it back. The "scientists" are now saying keeping the restrictions "will keep thousands out of hospital". Yes it will. Like it did last year it will continue to keep out people with other life threatening conditions. If you're going to get ill, get Covid because there will not be much for you if you get anything else.

In four weeks time another variant will have appeared and off we'll go again. The country must live with this virus and give the country the benefit of the very successful vaccine rollout. We must stop hiding behind the sofa.

[Seventy3]

it's madness to delay further, more people probably died from falling off a ladder last week.

[THECORBYLOON]

NJ, rather than using "ball park figures" since the ONS figures are available, why not use them instead?

[jno]

the question at the moment is whether the vaccines so far rolled out work against variants Delta through Omega. I don't mind waiting a bit longer to see how my AZ stands up to the latest mutants.

[lankeela]

Does anyone actually read all these posts giving figures which could be anything anyone wants to make up?

[Seventy3]

jno: they do work, they must, it's a mathematical certainty. You just have to look at the infections v hospitalisation figures. Massive growth in cases, almost no growth in hospitalisations, in fact it indicates to anyone with even the most basic grasp of stats that the vaccine is much more effective that the predictions of 95% after 2 doses. Nearer to 99.5% I'd say.

[ParsleyDumpling]

First of all it was protect the NHS, then protect the vulnerable, both have been protected. The vaccine works, it is being touted that the delay is so that more people can be vaccinated. I now work as a GP receptionist, and am booking the 30 somethings in for their first Covid jabs. They all received texts in May and yet I have noticed that this age group seem the most reluctant to take up the offer (obviously I can only comment on my area).
As New Judge and others have pointed out, the goalposts have been moved so many times they are not even on the pitch!! Why does this virus have all the members of SAGE running scared? Why are they prepared to risk the lives of people who are still being denied treatment, screening or diagnosis, because Covid has paralysed the NHS? I seriously don't understand it, the data is showing the vaccine works, we are not reaping the benefits of this. How long do they want to keep us 'locked' up just to be sure? It seems to me that all this hesitation is undermining the government's belief in the vaccine. Of course infections will rise, that is common sense, they will rise whenever we are released from purgatory. The government need to start listening to other experts (there are plenty of them out there), not just the narrow minded members of SAGE, who seem to have a different agenda to many other well (or even better) qualified experts in this field.

[THECORBYLOON]

"more people probably died from falling off a ladder last week."

Do about 420 folk die each year falling from ladders?