Thank Goodness For All This Rain
Animals & Nature3 mins ago
Downing St, Conference
By and large, the right decision to continue with the road map of lifting restrictions.
Tricky.....very tricky.
Not enough is known of the properties surrounding the new variant at the moment.
Let us reconvene on AB in 10 days time.
Tricky.....very tricky.
Not enough is known of the properties surrounding the new variant at the moment.
Let us reconvene on AB in 10 days time.
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Some friends of ours have waited 15 years before deciding to get married on July 6th. Only a total of 9 people (inc. Registrar) so it will be horrible if full re-opening is not allowed in June. Spoke to a lady in Tesco's car-park today who is also agitated because her son's wedding is booked for June 26th- already put-off for 2 years. If our vaccines work against the new variant (i.e. stop it killing us) then there shouldn't be a problem.... meanwhile I need to stop biting my nails with worrying about it. I'm matron d'honneur and witness at my age!
Prudie: 10:42
During the historical plagues people were quarantined on incoming ships, villages isolated themselves from the rest of the country, cities locked their gates and required vinegar baths and more, the list goes on. They had no vaccine, they knew not how disease spread, so they did all sorts of horrible things to protect themselves and the ouside world.
During the historical plagues people were quarantined on incoming ships, villages isolated themselves from the rest of the country, cities locked their gates and required vinegar baths and more, the list goes on. They had no vaccine, they knew not how disease spread, so they did all sorts of horrible things to protect themselves and the ouside world.
//What we do know is that a lockdown won't stop it.//
What I think we know is that the type of “lockdown” practised in the UK will not stop it. What is missing is that the benefits gained from a lockdown need to be weighed against the deficits that the lockdown inevitably produces. That wasn’t done a year ago and still hasn’t been done now. It seems a “given” that the cure for spread is lockdown and, as I argued a year ago, it ain’t necessarily so. There is some evidence from similar areas – one locked down and one not – where the rate of spread was nowhere near as supressed in the locked down area as would be expected. I’m pleased to see that particular argument will be heard in depth in the promised enquiry.
//People weren't stopped from doing what they wanted in any previous historical outbreaks though…//
//During the historical plagues people were quarantined on incoming ships, villages isolated themselves from the rest of the country, cities locked their gates and required vinegar baths and more//
Not in 1957 they didn’t:
https:/
It’s an interesting article. One particular passage stands out for the purposes of this debate:
“The period in which the Asian flu had the most severe consequences was only three months. Newspapers barely covered it and most people did not notice it. Histories of the period hardly mention it whereas the early history of 2020 will talk primarily about the virus and the lockdowns. This is due not to the pandemic but to the brutal pandemic policy response.”
Similar reports can be found on the 1968 “Hong Kong Flu” and I can attest that it scarcely got a mention. The current outbreak is the only one I can find in modern times where such brutal measures were taken in an effort to control its spread and that was done with no historical comparison being made and thus no idea whether the measures would work or not and what the benefits and drawbacks would be. Reading the article on the 1957 pandemic I am more convinced that the lockdown measures that were taken during the last year were imposed because governments believed the public expected them to protect them from everything whether they could or could not. It became evident quite quickly that they could not and the scientists of 50 or 60 years ago were probably far more astute than they are given credit for.
What I think we know is that the type of “lockdown” practised in the UK will not stop it. What is missing is that the benefits gained from a lockdown need to be weighed against the deficits that the lockdown inevitably produces. That wasn’t done a year ago and still hasn’t been done now. It seems a “given” that the cure for spread is lockdown and, as I argued a year ago, it ain’t necessarily so. There is some evidence from similar areas – one locked down and one not – where the rate of spread was nowhere near as supressed in the locked down area as would be expected. I’m pleased to see that particular argument will be heard in depth in the promised enquiry.
//People weren't stopped from doing what they wanted in any previous historical outbreaks though…//
//During the historical plagues people were quarantined on incoming ships, villages isolated themselves from the rest of the country, cities locked their gates and required vinegar baths and more//
Not in 1957 they didn’t:
https:/
It’s an interesting article. One particular passage stands out for the purposes of this debate:
“The period in which the Asian flu had the most severe consequences was only three months. Newspapers barely covered it and most people did not notice it. Histories of the period hardly mention it whereas the early history of 2020 will talk primarily about the virus and the lockdowns. This is due not to the pandemic but to the brutal pandemic policy response.”
Similar reports can be found on the 1968 “Hong Kong Flu” and I can attest that it scarcely got a mention. The current outbreak is the only one I can find in modern times where such brutal measures were taken in an effort to control its spread and that was done with no historical comparison being made and thus no idea whether the measures would work or not and what the benefits and drawbacks would be. Reading the article on the 1957 pandemic I am more convinced that the lockdown measures that were taken during the last year were imposed because governments believed the public expected them to protect them from everything whether they could or could not. It became evident quite quickly that they could not and the scientists of 50 or 60 years ago were probably far more astute than they are given credit for.
The problem with Boris is that he eventually does make the right decision, it is just often it is weeks too late. He will insist on something which does not seem a good idea. Friends and enemies will point out that his plans do not make sense. Boris will say he isn’t going to change his mind, then there will be days of dithering before he does change his mind, and makes the right decision. It has happened so many times.
if he is obviously reliant on the science then its difficult surely to know what to do for the best. if he dithers its because they are supposedly guiding him to make the best decisions possible with the evidence before them, like this Indian variant, it has been known about for a bit, but when you make a promise then have to renege it makes him look like he's not in control. I know he hasn't got everything right, we sit in our ivory towers, keyboard warriors denouncing him and the tories at every turn, whilst not being remotely interested in what he's having to put up with.
For PP and his "1967 Hong Kong Flo - no one said oh lets us go and stone a few chippies" - I was alive in 68 and don't remember this having any effect on my life, I still went to school, my parents still worked as did everyone around me so why would anyone be upset and blame any local Hong Kong individuals? It's not like now where no-one has been able to go anywhere for months, people have lost their jobs, businesses have gone to the wall, mental health issues have rocketed, families have been held apart for over a year in the main. And you seriously think some people won't (albeit mistakenly) blame that on the various locals assigned to the variant names? You're always telling us the vast majority of us have the mental age of 8 year olds and yet you think the mob will think intellectually on this particular topic??
// you think the mob will think intellectually //
they rarely do that, on any level.....
https:/
they rarely do that, on any level.....
https:/
// You're always telling us the vast majority of us have the mental age of 8 year olds and yet you think the mob will think intellectually on this particular topic??//
no I didnt think I was - but that is not important right now ( thx to airplane 1980)
Some expert saying vaccination is too long term to deal with norvern towns and their outbreak
AND ????
real life data is out there
You get all the people vaccinated yeah
and follow them up and see who gets covid and when
knowing how many should day by day
and you see when they do yeah
It starts to fall off at day 7
naughty expert - he is making a point - and not telling us what the data says - not liek Sqad....
no I didnt think I was - but that is not important right now ( thx to airplane 1980)
Some expert saying vaccination is too long term to deal with norvern towns and their outbreak
AND ????
real life data is out there
You get all the people vaccinated yeah
and follow them up and see who gets covid and when
knowing how many should day by day
and you see when they do yeah
It starts to fall off at day 7
naughty expert - he is making a point - and not telling us what the data says - not liek Sqad....
adam finn coming out with boolll as I speak
"you cant ring vaccinate and control an outbreak" he says
when he should know that at least in some cases ( diseases ) you DO !
( polio, diphtheria and TB in north america)
naughty naughty expert
even the air headed beeb jorno has said - hold on that's not right!
"you cant ring vaccinate and control an outbreak" he says
when he should know that at least in some cases ( diseases ) you DO !
( polio, diphtheria and TB in north america)
naughty naughty expert
even the air headed beeb jorno has said - hold on that's not right!
// For PP and his "1967 Hong Kong Flo - no one said oh lets us go and stone a few chippies" - I was alive in 68 and don't remember this having any effect on my life, //
good then you can confirm that 'no one said oh lets go and stone a few chippies' as I assert
and therefore you may conclude I was right / correct
jesus even an 8 y cd understand that
good then you can confirm that 'no one said oh lets go and stone a few chippies' as I assert
and therefore you may conclude I was right / correct
jesus even an 8 y cd understand that
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