At What Point Does The Economy Take Precdence?

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Deskdiary | 21:59 Sat 04th Apr 2020 | News
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Young people and new that otherwise healthy people in their 20s, 30s and 40s are succumbing is being reported because it's exceptional. They are the exception that proves the rule.

The fact is the vast vast majority of people will survive, some of whom may well only have mild symptoms, so (and I fully accept this is going to annoy people - and unlike many on on AB I'm not an expert!) at what point do we learn to accept the losses, get people out of the lockdown and focus on the economy?

If the lockdown continues for too long, if as a result of the lockdown people remain furloughed, and if companies start to go to the wall, at some point surely we need to run the risk and end the lockdown.

Frankly, if the economy becomes becomes fubarred, the issues people are currently facing will pale in comparison.


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And then what?
Total societal breakdown, I suppose. What do you think, Roy?
May have, but it's hardly guaranteed.

Some of this we may only truly understand in a year or so, when full data on deaths across the year have been released. Still, by way of comparison, weekly deaths in the UK from all causes are usually around 12,000 total (with fluctuations of 1000 or so in either direction). So far this week, 3,085 deaths related to Covid-19 have been announced. If the present rate continues then it could represent a hefty increase in total deaths this year, but let us hope that this is a very pessimistic picture.
jim, there's something here about the way death tolls are collected (you may well know it alrady)
As a final point, it's worth stressing that all data on deaths are highly provisional and subject to revision. ONS data, as can be seen from the link below, lags about a fortnight behind; Government data also tends to be subject to revisions as more info comes in, and is only based on hospital cases, so could miss a few.

The worst time to understand what's happening is usually while it's still happening, sadly.
You anticipated the link I was going to post, jno :)
If there is a delay in reporting the death, that will move the peak back a week or two.

The latest figures from Johns Hopkins University shows the following for the UK

Confirmed: 41,903
Deaths: 4,313
Recovered: 135 
Active: 37,455

Of course it is guaranteed jim360, but you have totally even mentioned it.

Your 23:20 comment show a sensible, if optimistic, take in this speculation fest, which is understandable in this statistically abused era, with such nonsense as suggesting " the mortality rate worldwide was about 4%" when the data is so conflicting and not even in yet.

This is a noVel experiment in isolating people to curtail a disease and it has never been attempted .
It may be considerable time to determine conclusions about a lot of the ramifications of this experiment.
The truth might never be known.
You'll forgive me, sevenOP, but I can't make head or tail of your first sentence.
sorry, NOT guaranteed jim360

here's a joke to make it up.....
is a pandemic a panic of academics ?
// Show me// - whoa - look at Wuhan
11 m people and they are not all dead

bit if you get to need ventilation - it hits around 50% mortality in England

the economy as hit - the GDP may go down 15% ( to days papers)

it didnt in 1918 - the twenties were boom years until 1929so like Trump - get it right and you will make a lorra lorra moolah
// This is a noVel experiment in isolating people to curtail a disease and it has never been attempted //
o god damn it - I just wish people wouldnt write like this

er- quaratine - shutting people up for forty long days
Leprosarium that was where ou put people who had leprosy in an attmept to control it and lastly
1665 - the measure then
described by Pepys ( they nailed people up in their houses ) wivda red cross of course
and also second hand - but longer - Defoe Jl of the plague year

the turth is out there and may never be known
oh god even worse - it is a disease for chrissakes - yo can see it etc...

also wiv 4000 dead in 40 000 - it looks like a death rate of 10% to me. which is MUCH higher than Germany - 0.2 % and around Wuhans

er what was the question ?

oh at what point do you send the old people into the car park instead of Hospital
I dunno when there is a danger of your coffee going cold I suppose
"Of course it is not guaranteed jim360, but you have not even mentioned it. "

"o god damn it - I just wish people wouldnt write like this "

I will attribute your nonsense {self-irony? Fe-y!}, which has zero relevance to this almost global experiment, to humour.

It’s a good question.
But it isn’t only the economy that suffers in situations like this : there are bound to be other health issues. And “the economy” is not some self contained entity: it matters because it affects all of us. So there are a range of side effects that are probably incalculable.
That means that there will come a time probably sooner than later when the disease will have to be allowed to spread again.
In fact I believe this is acknowledged.
About 170,000 people around the world die every day (yesterday, today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow and so on).

So far, about 60,000 people around the world have died from the corona virus (about 1/3 of day’s worth).

Is there any further data required to show that the economic cost is far greater than the loss of human life?
I see ZM went to Ms Abbots maths classes!
I cant see this can go on. The choice is lock-down until the virus is eradicated/dies out, wait for a vaccine or go the 'herd immunity' route.

Options 1 & 2 are simply not viable, you will end up with more people dying due to extreme poverty than the virus would kill. In other words you are cutting off your leg to cure an ingrowing toe nail. The third option is highly politically sensitive.

As I said yesterday on a similar set of posts someone is going to have to make a herd decision, I am just glad it is not me. Get it right and you will be a hero, wrong and damned forever. The problem is even if you get it right for some that will still be very wrong.
Show me where I got my figures wrong.
Give over ZM, you are making yourself look daft now.

It's as plain as the hole in your backside.

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