Election Predictions

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AB Editor | 09:18 Wed 22nd Apr 2015 | News
32 Answers

fivethirtyeight has their UK election prediction interactive up - you can see it here:

They have a habit of getting it right.

I'm somewhat worried about the labour and SNP growth they predicted, that coalition seems a little too obvious?


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Grumpy... I can't see Cleggie losing his seat, as he is sitting on a majority of 15,284, over the Tory candidate. Labour have traditionally come 3rd in Sheffield Hallam.

Danny Alexander is on rather less safe grounds though, with a majority of only 8765, with both Labour and the SNP snapping at his heels.

Actually, I don't dislike either of them, especially Alexander and wouldn't want them to leave Westminster.
If Labour form a minority government there will be no chance of a second election unless they either repeal the FPA or instigate a vote of no confidence in themselves.

Put a figure on how many seats UKIP will get then.

It will be less than 10. I reckon 3 or 4.
Well svejk I don't think it's a delusion -- it's just a truism that UKIP has a lot of ground to make up and it appears that their support is not strong enough to win pluralities in many seats. Signs are that they peaked a bit early, and at the General Election people will probably revert to form and vote Tory or Labour. We'll see how true this holds out. I expect UKIP to come (a tight) second in a fair number of seats, but probably not first.
Jim...who knows ? There are some that think UKIP will win by a "landslide" in 2020 !

The problem with these polls is that they are predicated on the belief that when asked, the interviewee tells the truth. It is after all, a secret ballot; and when you go into that booth, no one knows for whom you vote - and a good thing too!
Around 10, perhaps. We shall see. After another 5 years of Liblabcon lies and mismanagement I think people will start getting the message in time for 2020. Some folks are a little slow, bless them.

A Survation Poll in January gave Labour 33% and Clegg 23%.

More recently, Lord Ashcroft's Survey in March also predicted a Labour win.
// Around 10 // perhaps.

Hardly breaking the mould of British Politics.
Gromit...I haven't seen that ! Bad news for Cleggie.....he's not a bad sort of chap...I shall be sorry to see him go.
Clegg's biggest mistake was in thinking that Liberal Democrat voters actually wanted to do anything, rather than just protest about it...

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