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Labour Melt Down?

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ToraToraTora | 10:07 Sun 18th Aug 2013 | News
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Prezza mouthing off, no mid term lead in the polls, all time low in confidence in red Ed. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23744316
If they are going to win the next election, generally a double figure lead mid term is required. Looks like a Tory landslide is comming!

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Sqad

// 18 months ago with Labour 12-14 points ahead //

// The gap is narrowing //

18 months ago, 20th February 2012, the Conservatives were 1 point ahead in a YouGov/Sun poll.
What did Harold Wilson say? "A WEEK is 'a long time' in politics" ?

Did not Neil Kinnock's Labour Party have a poll lead of about 20 per cent at what was half-way through the term? He lost.

Too early to call; and a bad sign for the Tories is that I put a substantial bet on them winning; but the problem for Labour really is their choice of leader. Our politics has become increasingly focussed on who seems the better leader, the better communicator, the more decisive[ pause for laughter at U-turn Cameron being 'decisive', but I did say 'more decisive'], the more saleable, the one with a clear policy. Mrs Thatcher came across as possessing all those, as did Blair, defending decisively his role in the Iraq war, for example. Milliband does not, and to lose to a second division player like Cameron will be doubly galling.
Daily Telegraph 18 months ago.

// I'm a little nervous about the opinion poll lead that's opened up for the Conservatives. This morning's ICM poll in the Guardian puts the Tories on 40% and Labour on 35%. That echoes the Sunday Times/YouGov poll that had the Conservatives on 41% and Labour on 36%. Admittedly, the latest YouGov daily tracker in this morning's Sun gives Labour a one-point lead, but UKPollingReport's rolling average for the last 20 days has the Tories on 39% and Labour on 38%. Whichever way you cut it, the Conservatives are out in front.
The reason this isn't a cause for celebration for David Cameron is that it makes it less likely that Ed Miliband will survive. The general view among Labour's top brass is that the party should be enjoying a lead of between 10 and 20 points given the Coalition's austerity measures, but they could just about live with Miliband provided Labour remained ahead. Now that the party is beginning to slip behind, they cannot continue to turn a blind eye to their leader's shortcomings. The fact that a Tory lead has opened up immediately after Miliband's "relaunch" just underlines how hopeless the situation has become. //

And then we have this meltdown sending Labour into a 9 point lead.
Gromit.......this is my big complaint about statistics........you pointed out the only statistic in the last 2 years that put the Conservatives ahead and then made an attempt to rubbish my post.

As I get older, statistics are meaning less and less as a relevant statement of what is actually happeneing.
Gromit........in the last 18 months, using a chart of over 400 polls, you have chosen the only one that shows a Conservative lead to support your argument.

This, in my opinion brings statistics and your debating into disrepute.

Just my opinion.
Sqad

It was you who used the 18 months ago measure. Labour were not getting anywhere near 12-14% lead in February 2012.

And the Conservatives recorded a 2% lead a month later in March 2012.

The Labour lead may be diminishing from its peak, but that was not 18 months ago.
Gromit,

don't let's be coy....we are both intelligent enough to know what i am talking about.
The Lastest poll has Labour on 9%. You have to go back to August 2010 for the Conservatives to achieve 9%.
Telegraph today:
// The disclosure that plans are under way for another coalition is likely to infuriate some Conservative MPs, who blame Mr Cameron for failing to secure a majority in 2010 and believe his record will cost the party outright victory in 2015.
The discussions reflect the continuing fear among senior Tories that the party will once again fall short of outright victory at the next election. //

Landslide?

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