Covid

[catswhiskas]

I have just been reading a post on the amount of testing being done and the high numbers, is it not possible that some people will get it but will not inform anyone and a lot of cases will be missed. If you go for testing and you have flu, will it come up as covid anyway .

[eve1974]

surely not everyone goes for testing. Esp cos for many (most) it won’t even have major symptoms. So yup a lot won’t get tested.

As for going for testing for “normal” flu n it showing up as covid - the experts wld prob say that won’t happen but many others (a growing number) are saying that the pcr test produces many false positives.


Worth looking at Brand New Tube (mot you tube) for dr Vernon Coleman.

[woofgang]

while the test is not 100% accurate, it doesn't mistake flu for covid 19. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895843/S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdf

[catswhiskas]

Thank you eve and woofgang, that gives me a few answers .

[Chinajan]

12:23 // Worth looking at Brand New Tube (mot you tube) for dr Vernon Coleman. //

Erm, not really.

'...discredited self-published author, blogger, conspiracy theorist and former columnist and general practitioner...'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon_Coleman

[eve1974]

Ah now China - there are those (incl
Myself) who no longer trust wiki, snopes etc

[Chinajan]

Clearly

[douglas9401]

Brand New Tube eh?

Looks like they're putting the old band back together and this time it mouth froth and boggly eyes all the way.

[bobbinwales]

your right eve, dont trust snopes, there still insisting man did go to the moon, ha.

[Neveracrossword]

It's sometimes hard to navigate my way through the virtual world. Do I want to see stuff from the discredited conspiracy theorist or the unbiased accurate commentator? Oh wait, these are the same person (VC in this case).

[Peter Pedant]

// surely not everyone goes for testing. Esp cos for many (most) it won’t even have major symptoms. So yup a lot won’t get tested.//

erm yeah and no
there are random tests being done - and the resting rate seems to be around 0.7% at present = 7 /1000 have had or are having it
and that means there is 99.3% to go !

the stat which everyone really want to know IS
if a test is positive - what is the chance I have the disease?
( this has a technical name PPV: I will not bother you with the translation)
so ... suppose the false positive rate is 4%
then in every 100 tests
4 will be positive but false
and at a 1% infection rate there will be one true one
so 4+1 are testing positive and one has it
one out of five tests therefore show a true infection
the chance of having the disease if you test +ve is 20%

it depends on how common the disease is.
techno labspeak: the PPV depends heavily on the prevalence

You can do the same with the chance of NOT having the disease if you test negative - very high - easily over 99% (NPV)

woofies paper June 2020 still doesnt address this

this is not the first time I have written this
but luckily I am not read
and in the event I am skimmed - - - I am not understood

[douglas9401]

Semi-skimmed I think. Not so fat with most of the goodness. :-)