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Eu Referendum
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I`m completely in two minds as to which way to vote. Someone on here put up the name of a site that had the pros and cons of either outcome. Can anyone remember what is was please? I can`t find it or remember who posted it.
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There’s a basic flaw to your argument, Eddie. If the German firms are waiting to step into the breach to take up where the UK firms leave off, why aren’t they grabbing the business now? The reason is that it suits the customers of your sons’ employers to buy their goods where they do presently and they will continue to do so. Much of the UK’s export and import business is undertaken where no trading agreements are in place. One of our biggest markets is the US and the UK (or the EU) has never had a trading agreement with the US. Trade takes place because it suits the participants; it takes place despite politicians, not because of them.
Your sons’ employers are being disingenuous telling their employees that their business depends on EU membership. It may depend on Europe but that’s an entirely different matter. Trade will not suddenly cease between the UK and other EU countries. The standards and agreements that currently exist will remain in place and trade will continue. I hold shares in a number of multinational companies and have been keeping an eye on some of their views on a potential Brexit. Few of them forecast any substantial long term effect on their business should the UK leave the EU. To stick with the automotive industry, Toyota have plants in the UK, other EU countries and outside. They see no threat from a Brexit and in fact have just announced a multi-million pound investment programme in their UK facilities. They do not see a Brexit impinging on this.
Aside from that, people should appreciate that only 1 in 20 of UK companies trade with the EU. But the other 19 all have to comply with EU legislation and very many of them say that the red tape involved is stifling their businesses. Life will go on much as before should the UK quit. There will be some short term disturbance but businesses will manage this and it will be short lived. But the benefits for the whole country (your sons included) will be immense in the long term.
Your sons’ employers are being disingenuous telling their employees that their business depends on EU membership. It may depend on Europe but that’s an entirely different matter. Trade will not suddenly cease between the UK and other EU countries. The standards and agreements that currently exist will remain in place and trade will continue. I hold shares in a number of multinational companies and have been keeping an eye on some of their views on a potential Brexit. Few of them forecast any substantial long term effect on their business should the UK leave the EU. To stick with the automotive industry, Toyota have plants in the UK, other EU countries and outside. They see no threat from a Brexit and in fact have just announced a multi-million pound investment programme in their UK facilities. They do not see a Brexit impinging on this.
Aside from that, people should appreciate that only 1 in 20 of UK companies trade with the EU. But the other 19 all have to comply with EU legislation and very many of them say that the red tape involved is stifling their businesses. Life will go on much as before should the UK quit. There will be some short term disturbance but businesses will manage this and it will be short lived. But the benefits for the whole country (your sons included) will be immense in the long term.
What is best for you and everyone is to be a free agent to trade with the world, including the EU. They won't stop us trading with them. The French want us to buy their wines and cheeses as a simple example. R4 this eve. was in Germany - they did not envisage stopping trading with us in the event of 'Leave' - their industries which supply us would suffer. Look beyond the here and now and see freedom and opportunities which we can't have when tied to the failing beaurocracy which is Europe - please.
NJ the Germany companies do not get the business simply because the UK product is better, the company is a world leader in it's field. But if we ever leave the EU the car makers will have to drop our product unless and until we have a trade agreement in place. That may take months but more likely it will take years. The company supplies on a 'just in time' basis throughout the EU the customers can't wait months while a trade deal is agreed. As soon as we are out, they will start to buy the German product even though it is inferior. VW have even told the company that UK leaving the EU will spell the end of their contract!
237SJ, I'm sitting at home with a good pension and my feet up, and I've mostly lost interest in politics after following it for 50 years or more (because the same stuff just keeps coming round again), but I'm going to cast a vote in this one, I think it's important enough.
I think both sides are agreed there will be a year or three of economic turmoil if Britain leaves. The Brexiters say it will be worth it. Maybe... as long as it's not their jobs that are affected. I think everyone's entitled to vote for what's best for them personally, just as they do in most elections.
I think both sides are agreed there will be a year or three of economic turmoil if Britain leaves. The Brexiters say it will be worth it. Maybe... as long as it's not their jobs that are affected. I think everyone's entitled to vote for what's best for them personally, just as they do in most elections.
jourdain they may want to trade with us but if we are out of the EU they can not trade until we have trade deals in place, that will take months at least. Remember Canada has been negotiating a trade agreement with the EU for over 7 years now, they are not going to start new negotiations with the UK on it's own just as a deal with the entire EU is being finalized, the entire point of the deal is that it includes the whole of the EU. That is just one example, a USA/EU deal is also going on, remember Obama saying we will be 'at the back of the queue' if we are out of the EU?
Other EU members are not going to take kindly to a former partner leaving the 'club' but still wanting the same access to their home markets. The EU negotiates as a 'block' not as individual countries. The remaining members will do everything they can to ensure that we do not have trade deals as beneficial as those within the EU, unless they make it harder for a non EU member to trade with them than a EU member the entire point of the single market will be lost.
Other EU members are not going to take kindly to a former partner leaving the 'club' but still wanting the same access to their home markets. The EU negotiates as a 'block' not as individual countries. The remaining members will do everything they can to ensure that we do not have trade deals as beneficial as those within the EU, unless they make it harder for a non EU member to trade with them than a EU member the entire point of the single market will be lost.
“But if we ever leave the EU the car makers will have to drop our product unless and until we have a trade agreement in place”
“…but if we are out of the EU they can not trade until we have trade deals in place”
Why on earth do you think that, Eddie? There seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding among many people in the UK (which is encouraged by the Remainers) that trade can only take place where trading agreements are in place. Firstly, as I have pointed out, the UK will still have access to European markets under the current terms for some time after Brexit. But even if they did not, trade still takes place without agreements. Incredible as it may seem, more countries are outside the EU than within it. Even more incredible than that lies the fact that many of them trade perfectly well with EU countries without there being a single trading agreement in place. The US is a perfect example. It does huge amounts of business with EU countries but there has never been a trade agreement between the US and the EU. There is simply no substance in your contention that customers in other EU countries will have to stop buying UK products. You have been (very successfully) bamboozled and if you can demonstrate why you think you are correct I’d be pleased to listen. Meantime here's a few reasons why I believe you are incorrect:
As has been pointed out, the very last thing an ever declining EU wants is a trade war with the UK. It would be in nobody’s interests, least of all the remainder of the EU (who export far more to the UK than the UK does to them). I don’t know what your sons’ employers are thinking when they tell their staff that they will go under if we leave the UK. Perhaps they’ve taken a backhander from Mr Cameron and his chums. VW obviously have a vested interest (as most of the EU donor nations have) in seeing the UK remain (it helps with the huge amounts of dosh being shovelled from the donor to recipient nations) but I would wager that VW have no intention of cancelling a contract that obviously serves them perfectly well.
“Remember Canada has been negotiating a trade agreement with the EU for over 7 years now,…”
Glad you mentioned Canada. Whilst the Euromaniacs continue to fanny about, Canada-UK trade continues to grow (without a trading agreement, remember):
https:/
“Despite Canada's long-term shift towards proportionally more trade with the US, Canada–UK trade has continued to grow in absolute numbers. The UK is by far Canada’s most important commercial partner in Europe and, from a global perspective, ranks third after the United States and China.”
So trade between the UK and Canada succeeds perfectly well, is continuing to grow (unlike our trade with the EU), there is no trading agreement in place and each country does not have to accept the free movement of people between them for the trade to take place. Gosh, that cannot be true, can it?
“…remember Obama saying we will be 'at the back of the queue' if we are out of the EU?”
See above.
You (and it seems your sons) have obviously been fooled into believing that trade can only take place where trading agreements exist, Eddie. That is patently untrue (if it’s not, tell me why). You need to stop listening to people with a vested interest in the UK remaining and instead have a ferret round to find out the truth. Trade happens because businesses make it happen. They don’t need politicians to facilitate it for them and in any case politicians are obviously not very good at it. The Transatlantic trade agreement has been under debate for more than ten years and seems unlikely to be implemented; the Canada agreement has been ongoing for seven years and still seems some way off. The reason for this is, of course, that the EU has the interests of 28 disparate nations to accommodate. The UK only has one.
“…but if we are out of the EU they can not trade until we have trade deals in place”
Why on earth do you think that, Eddie? There seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding among many people in the UK (which is encouraged by the Remainers) that trade can only take place where trading agreements are in place. Firstly, as I have pointed out, the UK will still have access to European markets under the current terms for some time after Brexit. But even if they did not, trade still takes place without agreements. Incredible as it may seem, more countries are outside the EU than within it. Even more incredible than that lies the fact that many of them trade perfectly well with EU countries without there being a single trading agreement in place. The US is a perfect example. It does huge amounts of business with EU countries but there has never been a trade agreement between the US and the EU. There is simply no substance in your contention that customers in other EU countries will have to stop buying UK products. You have been (very successfully) bamboozled and if you can demonstrate why you think you are correct I’d be pleased to listen. Meantime here's a few reasons why I believe you are incorrect:
As has been pointed out, the very last thing an ever declining EU wants is a trade war with the UK. It would be in nobody’s interests, least of all the remainder of the EU (who export far more to the UK than the UK does to them). I don’t know what your sons’ employers are thinking when they tell their staff that they will go under if we leave the UK. Perhaps they’ve taken a backhander from Mr Cameron and his chums. VW obviously have a vested interest (as most of the EU donor nations have) in seeing the UK remain (it helps with the huge amounts of dosh being shovelled from the donor to recipient nations) but I would wager that VW have no intention of cancelling a contract that obviously serves them perfectly well.
“Remember Canada has been negotiating a trade agreement with the EU for over 7 years now,…”
Glad you mentioned Canada. Whilst the Euromaniacs continue to fanny about, Canada-UK trade continues to grow (without a trading agreement, remember):
https:/
“Despite Canada's long-term shift towards proportionally more trade with the US, Canada–UK trade has continued to grow in absolute numbers. The UK is by far Canada’s most important commercial partner in Europe and, from a global perspective, ranks third after the United States and China.”
So trade between the UK and Canada succeeds perfectly well, is continuing to grow (unlike our trade with the EU), there is no trading agreement in place and each country does not have to accept the free movement of people between them for the trade to take place. Gosh, that cannot be true, can it?
“…remember Obama saying we will be 'at the back of the queue' if we are out of the EU?”
See above.
You (and it seems your sons) have obviously been fooled into believing that trade can only take place where trading agreements exist, Eddie. That is patently untrue (if it’s not, tell me why). You need to stop listening to people with a vested interest in the UK remaining and instead have a ferret round to find out the truth. Trade happens because businesses make it happen. They don’t need politicians to facilitate it for them and in any case politicians are obviously not very good at it. The Transatlantic trade agreement has been under debate for more than ten years and seems unlikely to be implemented; the Canada agreement has been ongoing for seven years and still seems some way off. The reason for this is, of course, that the EU has the interests of 28 disparate nations to accommodate. The UK only has one.
Well done, NJ. Switzerland (not in EU) exports 4 times as much per head of population to the EU as does the Trade deals are not necessary before you can trade.
237SJ - the EU plans to 'regionalise the whole of Europe. This had begun in France before we left, with plans to combine historic departements into huge administrative regions. Britain will cease to exist as a country and become several regions of Europe. The S.W. has already been designated as one region with Devon, Cornwall and Somerset pushed together, it's been designated a 'holiday region', I believe . Do you want that for your children?
I may be on a pension (not a big one, I just get by) and this will probably take a hit, but I am putting my country and therefore my children and grandchildren, first.
237SJ - the EU plans to 'regionalise the whole of Europe. This had begun in France before we left, with plans to combine historic departements into huge administrative regions. Britain will cease to exist as a country and become several regions of Europe. The S.W. has already been designated as one region with Devon, Cornwall and Somerset pushed together, it's been designated a 'holiday region', I believe . Do you want that for your children?
I may be on a pension (not a big one, I just get by) and this will probably take a hit, but I am putting my country and therefore my children and grandchildren, first.
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