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D_Lucas | 02:26 Thu 26th Jan 2017 | Politics
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Is it going to a UKIP victory in the Stoke by-election on February 23rd?
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This is normally a Labour seat.
In 2005 and 2010 the LibDems came second.
In 2015 due to a backlash of the their part in the Coaltion Government, they were annilated and scrapped in 5th.

So the result in this by-election will depend on:

- Labour have picked a known local candidate, is that enough to hold the seat.
- Do the voters still think UKIP have anything to offer now Brexit has happened.
- Will the LibDems recover, and if so, where will their votes come from.
- Will the Conservatives campaign, they have already said the other by-election is their priority
- UKIP have picked their leader but no one has heard of him or recognises him, so are UKIP just a one man party (Farage)

It will be interesting. UKIP could win it. My guess is that Labour will just about hold on.
I heard that a very recent poll had the appalling Mr Nuttall 10 percentage points ahead of Labour
Well, it is Stoke, but even so ...
"now Brexit has happened"
Gosh that white paper must have passed quicker than I thought, and no 2 year EU delay ! :-)
// According to the poll commissioned by Labour Leave, Ukip has a strong lead in the Labour stronghold with 35 per cent 10 points ahead of Labour. //

// Pressure group Labour Leave have been forced to defend their Stoke-on-Trent by-election opinion poll, which put Ukip leader Paul Nuttall in the lead.

// The Labour Leave admitted that the survey was conducted on Facebook. //

// But polling expert Matt Singh, the founder of Number Cruncher Politics, raised concerns about the survey. "All indications are that the Stoke poll is garbage. Ignore," he said. //
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The odds moved from 4/5 favouring Labour with 11/10 for UKIP to 5/6 and evens then it was 10/11 for both. Now It's 4/5 favouring UKIP and evens for Labour.
Should have got in there earlier!
What are the Bookies saying ?

see post @ 19:48

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